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Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem services for climate change impacts and adaptation (VACCIA)
Date du début: 1 janv. 2009, Date de fin: 31 déc. 2011 PROJET  TERMINÉ 

Background Climate change presents a major challenge for the sustainable management of key ecosystem goods and services, including biodiversity, forests, water and agricultural production. Despite increasing efforts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, results from global circulation models show that major changes in the current climate cannot be avoided. Sector-specific adaptation measures are therefore needed. These adaptation measures have to be based on the understanding of (i) the likelihood of change, (ii) the vulnerability of the specific sectors to the predicted change, and (iii) the local-scale possibilities for adaptation. A methodology and tools must be developed that connect the global/regional scale climate-change scenarios to the local/regional scale where realistic adaptation measures are planned and conducted. Authorities and stakeholders need access to such information – provided in a format suitable for decision making – in order to understand and plan the necessary adaptation measures. Objectives The VACCIA project aimed to derive realistic climate change scenarios for specific sites to enable impact and vulnerability assessments and suggest the most appropriate adaptation measures. It planned to demonstrate the use of Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) satellite-data services for assessing climate change impacts and providing maps and databases for adaptation studies. Climate change-sensitive land cover information – including snowfall and phenology – would be used in the analysis. GIS-based platforms and computer programmes were to be developed for effective modelling. On the basis of the site-specific information database, results from the modelling tools and expertise of the partner (FinLTSER environmental network) vulnerability and impact assessments would be made on the main ecosystem resources faced with climate change. The project team planned to work with local/regional administrations and stakeholders to make an inventory of possible appropriate adaptation measures to respond to the identified threats. The assessments would also be used to define critical environmental impact thresholds, which take into account predicted climate change and possibilities for adaptation, to inform specific policy targets and measures. As well as disseminating its findings to relevant parties, the project was expected to contribute to the development of existing and planned international climate change networks and to the development of European policies for climate change adaptation, including the Green Paper and Second European Climate Change Programme. Results The VACCIA project studied the vulnerability of ecosystem services to climate change and the possibilities for different sectors of society to adapt to these changes. These studies allowed probability-based vulnerability assessments to be made. In particular, the project assessed how anticipated climate change would change the production of selected main ecosystem services/sectors (biodiversity, forest and agricultural production, carbon sequestration, water resources and quality, fishery production, tourism), and identified critical change thresholds. The derivation of these climate change scenarios and vulnerability assessments (database) was the main result of the project. The use of satellite data based GMES-services for making these assessments and adaptation studies (maps, databases) was another key result. Specific results of the project include: Calibration and validation of GMES services of SYKE. Derivation of site databases for impacts and vulnerability assessment. Data analyses and modelling tools for vulnerability assessment of key ecosystem goods and services (reports, GIS-based platforms, modelling tools). Derivation of critical thresholds for environmental change that are sensitive to predicted climate change and possibilities for adaptation (reports). Inventories of adaptation measures together with local and regional stakeholders (reports). Contribution to the development of national environmental legislation – the dissemination of knowledge helped to develop Environmental Impact Assessment regulations. Contribution to the development of European policies (European Climate Change Programme 11) for climate change adaptation by providing tools, data and examples on climate impacts and adaptation measures. Contribution to the development of international networks for climate/global change impacts assessment.The key challenges and adaptation options were found to be: For coastal ecosystems – the reduction of load from agriculture; countermeasures to increased runoff due to precipitation and floods; buffer zones, fertiliser amounts and the use of crop land; and bio-manipulation and reduction in cyprinid numbers. For urban environments – the design of new types of infrastructure and technical solutions to optimise ecosystem services in the urban environment, and the artificial recharge of storm waters via use of more permeable surfaces. For agricultural production – the breeding of cultivars that can make use of the prolonged growing season and higher temperatures but are still adapted to long day conditions. For catchment areas and lakes – attention paid to the predicted increase of runoff, erosion, and nutrient loads, and to their temporal element; differentiating between the effects of climate change and land use from each other. For forest production – addressing of the central adaptation challenges in forestry, in species selection, stand regeneration, optimal stand densities and timing of intermediate cuttings. For fisheries production – the adaptation of commercial fishing to changes in fish stocks and the operation environment; the ice-cover period will shorten so the trawling season will be longer. For biodiversity in coastal ecosystems – land-use planning; selection of management and grazing practices so as to minimise loss of nests of meadow breeding birds via wind-raised floods. For tourism-related communities – consideration of the predicted uncertainty of weather conditions due to climate change as a risk for those dependent on winter tourism; use of the most apparent and proactive adaptation measures; the development of year-round tourism and of tourism services that can cope with the changing climatic conditions. Further information on the project can be found in the project's layman report and After-LIFE Communication Plan (see "Read more" section).

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