Un sistema di previsione e prevenzione dellimpatto.. (PROTERINA-C)
Un sistema di previsione e prevenzione dellimpatto variabilità delle condizioni climatiche sulla variabilità del rischio per lambiente vegetato ed urbano
Date du début: 4 mai 2009,
Date de fin: 4 mai 2012
The project addresses issues related to climate change and its impacts on the natural environment (forest and agricultural areas) and man-made, with particular reference to conditions of risk induced by these changes. The overall objective is to provide to the affected areas, which have strong similarities between their morphological and land use, common tools to counter the negative effects of climate variability on risk conditions. The target areas include the areas of Corsica, Liguria and Sardinia. Some activities will be focused on pilot areas, selected on the basis of their significance in relation to the issues addressed. The final beneficiaries of the project will be the local governments involved in risk prevention. Some activities will have direct impact on local organizations (eg, voluntary groups) or on the population exposed to the risks. The project includes activities devoted to the deepening of understanding and developing models to assess the hazards of forest fires, also in relation to climate variability. It 'also planned to adopt a single integrated platform for the prediction of geological hazards and fire, and the identification of pilot projects for the redevelopment of areas at risk, including through the identification of sustainable land use practices. Key elements are the training programs for local governments and information campaigns targeting the population subject to the risk. Finally, activities are planned to disseminate the results by conducting workshops and the preparation of joint publications Expected Results: thermopluviometric characterization of the system area of interest. Quantification of trends; Definition of climate change scenarios consistent with the climatic analysis; In relation to the previous scenarios, assessing the impacts of climate variability on rural areas, and urban forestry; Improved knowledge of the phenomena related to climate variability and their potential impact on productivity and quality of crops; Experimental values of firepower at a laboratory scale and field. Definition of a model linear power of fire. For each type of vegetation, characterization of the main parameters involved in combustion processes; Based on historical data about events that occurred in the examination, calibration and validation of a simulator of the spread of fires; Improvement of predictive power for risk on a regional scale forest fires; Data and statistics relating to the performance indices obtained for Sardinia and Corsica; Identification of areas suitable for the characterization of forest fire hazard through a variety of approaches; Risk characterization with particular attention to areas of forest-urban interface; Average values and frequency of the hazard classes in relation to climate variability and vegetation; Data and statistics on the relationship between the intensity of the flame front and the meteorological variables and vegetation; Characterization of vulnerability, with particular reference to tourist facilities; Definition of a single platform for data sharing and implementation of predictive models of forest fire hazard; Design and implementation of an operational chain (hardware and software) for the preparation of products for environmental analysis derived from satellite data (temperature mapping of soils, vegetation, areas covered by fire, etc.) on a regional, integrated into the shared platform ; Design and implementation of an operational chain (hardware and software) for the estimation of precipitation to the ground by radarmeteorologici data and calibration with ground measurements from weather stations, integrated into the shared platform; Increased retail space and time in predicting the ground of physical parameters (temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation) that are forcing the models of risk prediction; Increase the sustainability of the practices of redevelopment of areas at risk; Identification of information needs for the public about potential effects of changing climatic conditions. Design and execution of information campaigns; Identification of training needs of local authorities and volunteers on the potential effects of changes in climatic conditions. Design and execution of training programs.
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