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QUANTITATIVE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR THE EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE RISK IN INHABITED AREAS (RISK-LESS)
Date du début: 1 sept. 2010, Date de fin: 31 août 2012 PROJET  TERMINÉ 

"Landslides constitute a major threat in mountainous areas. In recent years the risk assessment for landslides has shifted from qualitative to quantitative. The components of the risk are the hazard and the vulnerability of the exposed elements. Although for the quantification of the hazard there is considerable ongoing research, the work for the structural and societal vulnerability is limited and the evaluations are mostly judgmental or empirical, resulting in high subjectivity.The objective of this proposal is the development of analytical methodologies to be applied for the quantification of the vulnerability of buildings and people that are threatened by rockfalls and slides. Two load-bearing systems will be considered: reinforced-concrete, RC, and masonry structures. Additionally, the societal vulnerability will be calculated based on the potential extent of the building damage. The methodologies will be applied to selected case-studies.For the evaluation of the structural response of the buildings, structural analysis methods will be used. For RC structures the response of the load-bearing system will be simulated using models for high stain-rate impacts and/or the finite-element, FE, method. The latter will also be used for masonries, as well as failure criteria that are compatible with the FE analysis output. Where applicable, the potential for progressive collapse following local failure will be investigated through FE analysis, too. The vulnerability of the structures to landslides will be quantified using probabilistic vulnerability indices or thought probabilistic fragility curve diagrams. For the quantification of societal vulnerability a step-by-step methodology for the construction of frequency-fatalities (F-N) curves will be developed for each landslide type, using event trees and considering its dependence on structural vulnerability."

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