Future evolution of the Greenland ice sheet and as.. (FutGreenlandice)
Future evolution of the Greenland ice sheet and associated impacts: Studies with an advanced Earth System model
Date du début: 15 juil. 2011,
Date de fin: 10 févr. 2014
The contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to 21st century sea level rise is highly uncertain. Most estimates in the most recent IPCC report (AR4) were obtained using relatively crude ice sheet models forced with General Circulation Models (GCMs) output, without including important climate feedbacks associated with the changing ice sheets. Within the proposed project, the response of the Greenland ice sheet to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing is explored with the new Community Earth System Model (CESM), from the US, which includes a “higher-order” dynamical ice sheet model bi-directionally coupled to the Atmosphere-Ocean GCM. With this advanced tool, ice sheets are able to modify local and global climate via changes in surface albedo, topography, and freshwater fluxes to the ocean. The higher-order dynamics and the high resolution of the ice sheet component will permit to address some of the outstanding research questions emerging from recent observations of outlet glacier acceleration. The outcome of this project will constitute an important contribution to AR5 and AR6 estimates of future sea level rise. In addition, the proposed mobility will contribute to the ongoing process of including ice sheets as interactive components of European climate models. The applicant has contributed to the release of CESM and is an expert in the coupling of ice sheet models to Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs and the study of ice sheet-climate interactions. The following research questions will be addressed: the magnitude of changes in surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet and associated feedbacks, under a variety of forcing scenarios; the evolution of fast-flowing outlet glaciers, in similar forcing scenarios; and the potential impacts of ice sheet changes on local and global climate. Projections of future climate will be complemented by simulations of the previous interglacial, the Eemian, during which sea level was 3-6 m higher than today.
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