Complexity Research Initiative for Systemic Instab.. (CRISIS)
Complexity Research Initiative for Systemic InstabilitieS
Date du début: 1 nov. 2011,
Date de fin: 31 oct. 2014
In his opening address to the ECB Central Banking Conference, Jean-Claude Trichet said that "in the face of the crisis, we felt abandoned by conventional tools", and went on to call for the development of complex systems based approaches to augment existing ways of understanding the economy. This project proposes to address this need by creating an integrated set of complex systems-based ICT tools for modeling the economy, of practical use to policy makers, to be used in both simulation and gaming modes.The core element of our project will be a pair of coupled agent-based models of the European economy, one for the financial system and one for the macro-economy. The European model will in turn be coupled to a corresponding American model developed in an independently funded sister project. These models will be carefully calibrated using a comprehensive data set. The models will be constructed around the available data, so that the resulting model can be placed in the existing state of the real economy at any given point in time, and used to simulate that economy going forward. The decision making components of the model will also be calibrated using laboratory experiments with human subjects. The final result will include a sophisticated graphical user interface with open-source software. This model will allow us to do research to better understand the combined European and American economies, freed from the constraint of unrealistic assumptions such as perfect rationality and representative agents.The output of the research will be used to provide new insights for policy makers and evaluate quantitatively policy measures at the European level.
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