Challenges for Europe in the world of 2030 (AUGUR)
Challenges for Europe in the world of 2030
Date du début: 1 oct. 2009,
Date de fin: 31 janv. 2013
Our challenge is to capture, within a set of scenarios, the characteristics and implications of a variety of patterns that may occur in 2030 in all domains, be it political, economic, social, environmental or technological in Europe and in the world. The project wants to take stock of long term trends identified in demography, environmental changes as well as to feature some of the effects of likely changes in technology and behaviours, but it also wants to take into account the important institutional transformations that could come out of the major crisis that the world economy is confronted with. To reach this ambitious objective, in a comprehensive and consistent way, we plan to combine in a systematic way three types of approaches. One approach is to use macro models, ensuring that the main interdependencies are taken into account. As one macro model cannot cover all the domains under view, macro models we use are made to interact in ways which are facilitated, if not intermediated by the other two approaches. The second approach takes an institutional perspective whereby the main mechanisms of coordination, setting both the rules of behaviours but also the means to create new modes of coordination, are investigated and the various interests at stake accounted for. This political economy of institutions and institutional changes applies at both national and international levels. The present crisis, that burst in the most developed economies and is affecting all economies throughout the world, leads us to put a specific emphasis on forthcoming and potential institutional changes . The third approach stems from the by now long experience of foresight studies which proceed by asserting visions, based on specific thorough transformations impacting on all domains. This qualitative approach is informed and framed by the two other approaches.
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